Fewer than 10% of senior Capitol Hill staffers expect third reconciliation bill to pass

Washington’s most connected insiders have spoken, and the verdict is bleak. Fewer than 10% of senior Capitol Hill staffers believe a third reconciliation bill will make it through the 119th Congress, according to Punchbowl News polling from early July 2026.

The Senate says no, the House says please

House Speaker Mike Johnson has been pushing hard for a third reconciliation bill centered on defense spending and fraud reduction, hoping to get something across the finish line before the August 2026 recess.

Senators Mitch McConnell and Susan Collins declared on June 9, 2026, that it is “safe to conclude there will not be another reconciliation bill.”

A separate canvass conducted by Punchbowl on June 1, 2026, found that a majority of K Street leaders had already reached the same conclusion. Reconciliation bills matter because they can pass the Senate with a simple majority, bypassing the 60-vote filibuster threshold.