The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite Index have risen well last week. The Dow Jones has come close to its crucial resistance. The recovery in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite looks shallow. Broadly, we prefer to remain cautious rather than being overly bullish on the US equities at the moment.Here is an analysis on how the US markets can perform in the coming week.Dow Jones (52,900.07)The Dow Jones surged to a record high of 52,903.85 last week and has closed on a strong note. However, a crucial resistance is at 53,150 which will need a close watch this week. Failure to breach this hurdle and a subsequent fall below 52,000 will be bearish. That in turn will indicate a top in place. In that case, the Dow Jones can fall back to 50,000-49,000 in the coming weeks.A sustained rise above 53,150 is needed to keep the upmove going. If that happens, then a rise to 55,000 is possible.We prefer to remain cautious rather than being overly bullish at the moment.S&P 500 (7,483.25)The S&P 500 index has risen back well and recovered almost all the loss made in the previous week. But the price action indicates the absence of strong buyers above 7,500. So, we will have to wait and watch the movement for a few days to get clarity.Even if the index goes above 7,500, it has to breach 7,600 decisively to gain bullish momentum. Only then a rise to 7,800 will come into the picture.As long as the index remains below 7,600, we retain our view of seeing a fall to 7,200-7,150 in the coming weeks. A break below 7,300 can trigger this fall.NASDAQ Composite (25,832.67)The resistance at 26,250 mentioned last week has held very well. The NADAQ Composite index touched a high of 26,261 and has come down from there. Near-term support is at 25,600. A break below it can drag the index down to 25,000 again. It will also keep the downside open to see 24,200-24,000 eventually in the coming weeks.NASDAQ Composite index has to rise past 26,250 in order to get some breather. Only then a rise to 27,000-27,500 is possible.Dollar IndexThe dollar index (100.88) has declined below 101 towards the end of the week. The jobs data release on Thursday showed that the unemployment rate in the US dipped to 4.2 per cent in June from 4.3 per cent a month ago. This has raised doubts that the US Federal Reserve will not be in a hurry to increase the interest rates immediately.On the charts, the picture remains positive. Supports for the dollar index are at 100.60 and 100.40 which are likely to limit the downside.We expect the dollar index to rise above 101 decisively and go up to 103 initially. That will also keep our medium-term bullish view intact to see 105-106 on the upside.The index has to decline below 100.40 to turn the short-term picture negative. If that happens, a fall to 99.50 can be seen.Treasury YieldThe US 10Yr Treasury Yield (4.49 per cent) has risen back sharply from its low of 4.36 per cent last week. Key resistances are at 4.5 per cent and 4.55 per cent. As mentioned last week, a decisive break above 4.55 per cent is needed to boost the bullish momentum. Only then a rise to 4.8 per cent can come into the picture.As long as the yield stays below 4.55 per cent, the downside will remain open to see 4.25 per cent.Published on July 4, 2026