Bitcoin’s realized profit and loss ratio among short-term holders has cratered to its lowest level in 43 months, a reading that historically precedes major recoveries. With BTC trading between $57,000 and $62,000, more than 50% below its October 2025 peak above $126,000, the pain is real.
Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said on July 2 that the bottom is “closer than ever,” while Swan Bitcoin analysts pointed to on-chain data showing roughly 47% of Bitcoin’s supply is currently in profit. That figure matches readings observed at prior cycle bottoms, the kind of capitulation moments that, in hindsight, look like gift-wrapped entry points.
The numbers behind the capitulation
The Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR, tells a similar story. When SOPR drops below 1.0, it signals that the average coin being spent is being sold at a loss. Historically, sustained sub-1.0 readings have coincided with market floors in Bitcoin’s major cycles.
Only 47% of Bitcoin’s total supply sitting in profit is a stark number. The current reading puts the market in the same neighborhood as the bottoms of 2012, 2014, 2019, and 2022. Every single one of those periods was followed by substantial rallies.
