Men and women more polarised than ever, so who will decide election?

PremiumOpinionOpinion byThomas CoughlanPolitical Editor·NZ Herald·3 Jul, 2026 05:00 PM9 mins to readThomas Coughlan, Political Editor at the New Zealand Herald, loves applying a political lens to people's stories and explaining the way things like transport and finance touch our lives. ‌Chris Hipkins (left), Christopher Luxon and their respective party members face different challenges in winning over certain demographics of voters. Graphic / Paul SlaterTHE FACTSThe NZ Election Study showed young women supported National in large numbers at the 2023 election.Recent polling suggests that support has shifted. Current polls are split on whether a National or Labour-led Government will win the election, although the Herald-Motu Research Poll of Polls thinks a coalition victory is more likely. This year’s election is essentially a coin toss – and has been for some time. For a year, the coalition has led in most polls, although not convincingly. Recently, the left bloc has led in a few polls, although, again, not convincingly.

But this evenly balanced