The biggest winners of the AI spending bonanza aren’t the companies writing the checks. They’re the ones cashing them.
UBS Global Wealth Management research indicates that AI infrastructure stocks, the energy companies, data center equipment makers, and industrial suppliers powering the AI revolution, have outpaced the big tech hyperscalers that are actually deploying the capital.
The capital expenditure arms race
The numbers driving this shift are genuinely staggering. UBS has raised its global AI capital expenditure forecast to $423 billion for 2025, with projections climbing to $571 billion or more in 2026. Some UBS estimates push the 2026 figure as high as $820 billion.
The hyperscalers, primarily Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet, are leading this charge. UBS projects their combined capital expenditures could exceed $600 billion to $725 billion in 2026 alone. More than 85% of historical AI capex is tied to the largest hyperscalers, making them the single most important demand signal in the entire technology supply chain.
