GENEVA -- El Nino conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather events in many parts of the world, the World Meteorological Organization warned on Friday.
The WMO's monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update indicates that El Nino is expected to develop rapidly into a strong event during the July-September 2026 period. Multi-model ensemble forecasts from leading global producing centers point to consistent and significant warming of ocean temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with seasonal average sea-surface temperatures expected to exceed 2 degrees Celsius above the long-term average in key monitoring regions.
Forecast models show remarkable agreement, providing high confidence in the outlook. El Nino is expected to continue strengthening during the Northern Hemisphere autumn, with its influence extending across many regions of the globe. Meanwhile, the equatorial Atlantic basin is forecast to remain generally warmer than average.
In terms of temperature, the latest update predicts a high likelihood of above-average temperatures across most land areas between 60 degrees South and 60 degrees North, covering nearly all densely populated regions outside the polar areas.
