Welcome to The Athletic’s daily World Cup Predictions.This article gives you the lowdown on all today’s games but with the bonus of some friendly competition…Throughout the tournament, we will have two Athletic writers (Andy Jones or Elias Burke — with help from our experts from each of the 48 countries) pitting our soccer knowledge against a different Athletic subscriber each day and ‘Algo’, the shiny new algorithm from The Athletic, which is making its computerised debut during the 2026 World Cup.Oh, and a dog called Stanley and a six-year-old called Wilfred (who some of you may remember from last season’s Premier League predictions).Our guest subscriber today is Ben from Australia, who supports Australia and Arsenal. Good luck, Ben!If you would like to apply to be our guest subscriber for a day during this tournament, please follow the instructions in the article here.
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What happened on Matchday 22?Drama free last 32 ties have felt like rarities, but Spain enjoyed one as they cruised through with a 3-0 victory over Austria.Luis de la Fuente’s side were in control from the first minute and showed why many believe they could go all the way in this tournament. They played with a swagger as they left Austria chasing shadows at times, especially when Lamine Yamal was on the ball as he continued to look sharper with every game he plays in.Their dominance was rewarded when they took the lead through Mikel Oyarzabal who swept home Marc Cucurella’s cross after 36 minutes. Yamal was Spain’s main threat, but Cucurella wasn’t far behind. The Real Madrid defender played a key part in Pedro Porro’s goal to make it 2-0 after 66 minutes and provided his second assist when he set up Oyarzabal to seal the tie on 89 minutes.The closest UK viewers got to any sort of drama was via the latest instalment from co-commentator Danny Murphy about the cat he used to own called Bob. It got me thinking that maybe we should have a cat join the predictor battle at the next World Cup in four years time. That might be one way to motivate Stanley.Speaking of Stanley, he and the rest of the predictors got off to the perfect start as everybody thought Spain would progress into the round of 16. It wouldn’t be a matchday without Stanley going against the grain though would it as he fancied Croatia to knock out Portugal.It looked a questionable decision when Portugal started with an intensity Croatia could not live with, but Zlatko Dalic’s experienced side found a foothold before half time. Five minutes into the second period, Ivan Perisic gave Croatia the lead.Both sides had goals disallowed for offside within ten minutes of the goal. Croatia thought they had doubled their lead before Cristiano Ronaldo appeared to have equalised with a brilliant touch and finish — although given he has spent most of the tournament offside it wasn’t a surprise that the flag went up.Ronaldo was not denied his first ever World Cup knockout goal much longer, though, as a careless foul by Nikola Vlasic on Renato Veiga from a corner, almost immediately after the goal was ruled out, gave him the chance to score from the penalty spot. He made no mistake.A handful of terrific Diogo Costa saves, followed by another Croatia goal ruled out for offside meant the game looked set for extra time. With 94 minutes on the clock though, Rafael Leao crossed for Goncalo Ramos to power a header home. Drama over? No chance. Croatia netted an equaliser in the 103rd minute through Josko Gvardiol, but it was controversially ruled out for offside because of the smallest of touches from Igor Matanovic in the build-up.It was always going to be a tough ask for Switzerland and Algeria to replicate that drama and the former had other ideas as they secured a relatively comfortable 2-0 victory and passage into the Last 16.Johan Manzambi was the star of the show for Murat Yakin’s side in the first half especially and it was one of his mazy runs that led to Breel Embolo opening the scoring. He got to the byline and put it on a plate for his teammate.Dan Ndoye scored almost immediately after the restart to double Switzerland’s advantage and they managed the game from there as Algeria were unable to sustain pressure and never looked like getting back into the game.A Switzerland victory meant it was a full house of correct predictions for us (the experts), Algo and Wilfred, to keep it tight at the top. Stanley also opted for Switzerland but subscriber Jeff had been hoping for an Algeria upsetResults from July 2, 2026 TA ExpertsThe AlgoReader PicksWilfred (age 6)Stanley the DogPortugalCroatia POR POR POR POR CRO SpainAustria ESP ESP ESP ESP ESP SwitzerlandAlgeria SUI SUI ALG SUI SUI OverallaccuracyCorrectpicksBeststreakThe algorithm67%5710TA experts66%5611Wilfred (age 6)65%557Reader picks61%525Stanley the dog39%334How do the predictions work?It’s pretty simple: we will give you some background on each game, players to watch and facts on the two teams. Then we will predict the outcome.We will maintain a leaderboard of how everyone gets on with their predictions (ranked by the percentage they get correct) but we’ll also keep a record of “streaks” — the number of predictions everyone gets right in a row. These streaks also form a crucial part of The Athletic’s interactive Soccer Pick’ems feature, allowing you to make your own picks every round as well.So come along and get involved, and check back each day to see how we are getting on in the leaderboard — and probably more importantly, whether you, the subscribers, or Stanley or Wilfred are beating us.Or, worst of all, whether ‘Algo’ can prove data and statistics know all when it comes to predicting.Good luck, and enjoy!Predictions for Matchday 23Australia vs Egypt, round of 32, kick-off 2pm ET, 7pm BSTWhere to watch: FOX (U.S.), BBC (UK)Streak Risk Factor: 3/5. The status of Mohamed Salah’s fitness feels huge heading into this game. If Egypt are without him, Australia should feel their chances of progression increase, but if he is available, then he could be the difference-maker.Watch Rating: 3/5. Neither team has been towards the top of anyone’s must-watch list, but this game feels like it might be decided by a single goal, so there could be some drama and tension on the cards.The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Egypt are still holding their breath over the fitness of their talisman Salah after he came off with more than 30 minutes to play in the final group game against Iran. The 34-year-old may be a fading force, but he has still shown his importance to his national team, especially in the 3-1 victory over New Zealand when he scored the all-important second goal and assisted the third. “This has already been a historic tournament for Egypt as it is the first time they progressed from the group stages, but can they go one better and win their first World Cup knockout game?Will Salah play? (Fran Santiago/Getty Images)“They may have conceded in every game so far, and there are a few injury concerns surrounding the back line, but they’ve also shown they are an attacking threat. If Salah is unavailable or isn’t ready to start, they will need Omar Marmoush, Emam Ashour and Mostafa Ziko to take on the responsibility.“As for Australia, they began with a surprise 2-0 victory over Turkey, showcasing their counter-attacking, before being second-best to the United States in a 2-0 defeat. Their final 0-0 game against Paraguay was a non-event because a draw suited both sides. “Tony Popovic’s side have been built on their defensive stability, and they will hope to be more creative in possession. There is a hint of revenge on the table for Australia too, as they were beaten by Egypt in the 2021 Olympics, ending their medal hopes. It was the last time the two played against each other, and there are a handful of Australians in the squad who played in that game.”The Athletic Soccer Experts: EGYPT WINGuest Subscriber Ben: AUSTRALIA WINSix-year-old Wilfred: AUSTRALIA WINStanley the dog: AUSTRALIA WINAlgo: EGYPT WINOur picks for July 3, 2026 TA ExpertsThe AlgoReader PicksWilfred (age 6)Stanley the DogArgentinaCape Verde ARG ARG ARG ARG CPV ColombiaGhana COL COL COL COL COL AustraliaEgypt EGY EGY AUS AUS AUS Argentina vs Cape Verde, Round of 32, kick-off 6pm ET, 11pm BSTWhere to watch: FOX (U.S.), ITV (UK)Streak Risk Factor: 2/5. This should be a comfortable victory for Argentina, who cruised through the group stages, but you just cannot completely rule out Cape Verde writing another chapter in their story, even if they haven’t actually won a game yet.Watch Rating: 5/5. You’ve got Lionel Messi playing against this World Cup’s surprise package — what more could you want?The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Ahead of the tournament, Cape Verde goalkeeper Vozinha said he hoped he would get the chance to play against Messi. The 40-year-old will live that dream and be tasked with trying to be the first goalkeeper to stop him scoring in this World Cup. “As the tournament has been for Cape Verde in general, this is a free hit because there are no expectations. It will take an incredible performance for their journey to continue, though.“Three games, three wins and even a bit of rest for Messi, the group stages could not have gone much better for Lionel Scaloni’s Argentina. The defending champions head into the knockout stages with plenty of confidence and their star player in terrific form. More goals from Messi must be expected (Image Photo Agency/Getty Images)“Argentina’s final group game against Jordan was a dead rubber with the former through as group winners and the latter already eliminated. It allowed Scaloni to make nine changes to his starting XI and means those he left out will come back into the side rested and fresh. “Messi’s pursuit of the Golden Boot will continue. He’s currently joint-top on six goals alongside Kylian Mbappe, and he will view this as another great opportunity to add to his tally and increase his record as the top goalscorer in World Cup history.”The Athletic Soccer Experts: ARGENTINA WINGuest Subscriber Ben: ARGENTINA WINSix-year-old Wilfred: ARGENTINA WINStanley the dog: CAPE VERDE WINAlgo: ARGENTINA WINColombia vs Ghana, Round of 32, kick-off 9:30pm ET, 2:30am BSTWhere to watch: FOX (U.S.), ITV (UK)Streak Risk Factor: 3/5. Colombia should fancy their chances and have been the better side of the two in the tournament, but Ghana have shown they can stay in games and frustrate opponents. Watch Rating: 3/5. Ghana’s focus has been on being effective rather than entertaining, but Colombia have been able to combine the two and have been a fun watch. It’s set up to be an intriguing contest.The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Colombia may not have beaten Portugal, although Davinson Sanchez did have a goal ruled out late on for a very tight offside, but it was a performance that showed they will be a tough opponent for anyone in the tournament. “Led by the excellent Luis Diaz, they were the better side against Roberto Martinez’s team. Colombia attempted 24 shots, their most on record in a World Cup match (since 1966), surpassing the 23 attempts against the USA in 1994. Not for the first time in this tournament, they haven’t been clinical, and against a steely Ghana defence they will need to take their chances when they arrive.“Ghana missed out on the opportunity to qualify from Group L in second place after they lost their final game 2-1 to Croatia. After keeping clean sheets in their first two matches, Croatia were able to expose certain vulnerabilities which frustrated head coach Carlos Queiroz, and he is looking for his side to return to the compact solidity they displayed in their first two games. “At the other end of the pitch, a lot of pressure is being put on Manchester City’s Antoine Semenyo to be their difference-maker. The 26-year-old is trying his best but he is regularly coming up against multiple defenders when trying to create a shooting opportunity for himself or a chance for a team-mate. He suffered a knock against Croatia but he is expected to be available. If he isn’t, Ghana’s task becomes a lot harder.”The Athletic Soccer Experts: COLOMBIA WINGuest Subscriber Ben: COLOMBIA WINSix-year-old Wilfred: COLOMBIA WINStanley the dog: COLOMBIA WINAlgo: COLOMBIA WIN
