Welcome to The Athletic’s daily World Cup Predictions.This article gives you the lowdown on all today’s games but with the bonus of some friendly competition…Throughout the tournament, we will have two Athletic writers (Andy Jones or Elias Burke — with help from our experts from each of the 48 countries) pitting our soccer knowledge against a different Athletic subscriber each day and ‘Algo’, the shiny new algorithm from The Athletic, which is making its computerised debut during the 2026 World Cup.Oh, and a dog called Stanley and a six-year-old called Wilfred (who some of you may remember from last season’s Premier League predictions).Our guest subscriber today is Jeff from the United States, who supports the USMNT and Portland Thorns. Good luck, Jeff!If you would like to apply to be our guest subscriber for a day during this tournament, please follow the instructions in the article here.
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What happened on Matchday 21?England got the job done in the end, but it was far more dramatic than many expected. Having planned for the Democratic Republic of Congo to play with a back five to aid their efforts to sit deep and defend, England coach Thomas Tuchel was seemingly blindsided by Congo’s back four and immediate eagerness to push forward. And with their first sustained attack of the game, Brian Cipenga was found unmarked in the England box and shot powerfully past Jordan Pickford — who will be disappointed not to have saved it — into the England net, setting up potentially one of the biggest knockout upsets in modern World Cup history.England improved after the first hydration break and could easily have found themselves back on level terms before half-time, had it not been for an inspired performance from goalkeeper Lionel Mpasi-Nzau. But Tuchel’s pressure finally paid dividends in the 75th minute, with Harry Kane heading past Mpasi-Nzau, before the Bayern Munich striker scored his second of the game and 72nd of the season for club and country — the second-most of any player in the 21st century, behind Lionel Messi in 2011-12 — to book a meeting with Mexico in Mexico City in the last 16, and deliver a point to everyone at Predictions HQ.Kane saved the day for England (Richard Pelham/Getty Images)If you thought that was dramatic, the second game of the day took the theatre to another level. Senegal were cruising to a 2-0 win, at which time the experts, Wilf and Stanley were all feeling pretty chuffed with our decision to back them, until the 86th minute, when Romelu Lukaku pulled one back for Belgium. Three minutes later, a mistake from the Senegal goalkeeper allowed Youri Tielemans to score Belgium’s second, the unlikeliest comeback given Senegal’s dominance, before Tielemans tucked away a penalty in stoppage time of extra time to progress, and hand a crucial point in the predictions title race to Algo and the readers.Results from July 1, 2026 TA ExpertsThe AlgoReader PicksWilfred (age 6)Stanley the DogEnglandD.R. Congo ENG ENG ENG ENG ENG United StatesBosnia and Herz. USA USA USA USA USA BelgiumSenegal SEN BEL BEL SEN SEN They will meet the USMNT in the last 16, after Mauricio Pochettino’s side beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0. After having an offside goal ruled out, Folarin Balogun got the all-important breakthrough just before half-time, but he won’t be on the pitch for their clash with Rudi Garcia’s Belgium, after the referee gave him a red card for an accidental foul in the second half. Balogun has been Pochettino’s star turn at this World Cup, and he will be a huge miss for a tough clash.After everyone here predicted the USMNT to win, the Algo ends the day back on the top of the leaderboard (curse Senegal’s inability to see a game out!). Forgive us for getting too invested, but would it be wild to say the drama here is almost as good as the stuff you’re seeing on the pitch?OverallaccuracyCorrectpicksBeststreakThe algorithm66%547TA experts65%5311Wilfred (age 6)63%527Reader picks61%505Stanley the dog38%314How do the predictions work?It’s pretty simple: we will give you some background on each game, players to watch and facts on the two teams. Then we will predict the outcome.We will maintain a leaderboard of how everyone gets on with their predictions (ranked by the percentage they get correct) but we’ll also keep a record of “streaks” — the number of predictions everyone gets right in a row. These streaks also form a crucial part of The Athletic’s interactive Soccer Pick’ems feature, allowing you to make your own picks every round as well.So come along and get involved, and check back each day to see how we are getting on in the leaderboard — and probably more importantly, whether you, the subscribers, or Stanley or Wilfred are beating us.Or, worst of all, whether ‘Algo’ can prove data and statistics know all when it comes to predicting.Good luck, and enjoy!Why not try The Athletic’s World Cup Tracker, where you can find a forecast projecting the likelihood that each team will progress through each stage of the tournament, along with a bracket projecting the most likely round-of-32 matchups, current standings, and a bunch of other neat forecasts and scenarios.Predictions for Matchday 22Spain vs Austria, Round of 32, kick-off 3pm ET, 8pm BSTWhere to watch: FOX (U.S.), BBC (UK)Streak Risk Factor: 3/5. Spain haven’t been entirely convincing, even with a 4-0 victory over Saudi Arabia during the group stage, but they should have enough talent to see off Austria, who have not been impressive either.Watch Rating: 3/5. The round of 32 has produced plenty of drama already, so why risk missing more? The entertainment in this match is likely to be determined by how effective Austria are in possession, as Spain are likely to have a lot of the ball.Our picks for July 2, 2026 TA ExpertsThe AlgoReader PicksWilfred (age 6)Stanley the DogPortugalCroatia POR POR POR POR CRO SpainAustria ESP ESP ESP ESP ESP SwitzerlandAlgeria SUI SUI ALG SUI SUI The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Austria’s passage to the knockout phase looked set to be free of drama as they and Algeria were drawing 2-2 and a point was good enough for both to go through. Everything was calm, until Riyad Mahrez scored in the 93rd minute, which would have sent Austria out of the World Cup. Cue bedlam and, three minutes later, substitute Sasa Kalajdzic headed in an equaliser to restore order 61 seconds after he came on.“This is the first time Austria have progressed beyond the World Cup’s opening phase since 1982. Against Argentina in their second group game, they set up to neutralise their opponents, and specifically Lionel Messi, but when they got the ball, they offered little. If they want a different result from the 2-0 defeat they suffered to the world champions here against the European champions, they need more from whatever combination of attacking players coach Ralf Rangnick selects.“Spain have looked a better side since the return of Lamine Yamal, but their 1-0 victory over Uruguay in the final group match was a reminder that he needs others to step up too if they want to go far in this competition. They still don’t look like a cohesive, functioning attacking unit. Spain have relied on Lamine Yamal in their recent matches (David Ramos/Getty Images)“Luis de la Fuente’s side got the job done against Uruguay though, and he will be pleased to progress from the group without conceding a goal, though they have not faced an attack of real quality in this competition yet. Spain will be confident they can maintain that defensive record against Austria.”The Athletic Soccer Experts: SPAIN WINGuest subscriber Jeff: SPAIN WINSix-year-old Wilfred: SPAIN WINStanley the dog: SPAIN WINAlgo: SPAIN WINPortugal vs Croatia, Round of 32, kick-off 7pm ET, 12am (midnight) BSTWhere to watch: FOX (U.S.), BBC (UK)Streak Risk Factor: 5/5. Portugal are the more talented of these two sides, but for their sake they could do with realising that. Neither team feel like clear favourites here because they both have flaws, which makes this a difficult game to predict.Watch Rating: 4/5. This is unlikely to be a thriller full of goals, but that does not mean there will be no drama. The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “So you know how we talked about Roberto Martinez solving his Cristiano Ronaldo problem ahead of the final group game against Colombia? Well, it looks like Portugal might just have a general problem which raises doubts about how far they can go in this tournament. “With the opportunity to win their group, they were comfortably second-best to Colombia and the weaknesses from their opening draw with DR Congo returned. For a team with so much talent, Portugal continue to lack the ability to overwhelm opponents. Does Roberto Martinez know how to use 41-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo? (Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images)“Croatia recovered from defeat to England in their first match of this World Cup to win their next two against Panama and Ghana. Neither game was easy and their winning goals came in the second half of both, but this sort of grittiness is what has made Zlatko Dalic’s side so dangerous in previous tournaments.“They still have plenty of experience in their squad and in knockout stages they have shown they can manage games, hang in when things are tough, and be on the right side of the deciding moments, even if that is a penalty shootout. Whether they have convinced or not so far, you cannot write them off in a one-off match.”The Athletic Soccer Experts: PORTUGAL WINGuest subscriber Jeff: PORTUGAL WINSix-year-old Wilfred: PORTUGAL WINStanley the dog: CROATIA WINAlgo: PORTUGAL WINSwitzerland vs Algeria, Round of 32, kick-off 11pm ET, 4am BSTWhere to watch: FS1 (U.S.), BBC (UK)Streak Risk Factor: 4/5. Switzerland should enter this one as favourites, but they have yet to keep a clean sheet in this tournament, which should offer Algeria encouragement, especially if Riyad Mahrez can roll back the years again. Watch Rating: 3/5. What an opportunity for both teams to make the last 16. That should encourage them to approach this game positively. The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Had Switzerland not conceded that shock stoppage-time equaliser to Qatar in their opening game, there might be a more positive view of a team who would have advanced to the round of 32 with maximum points. They’re trending in the right direction and should be buoyed by a confidence-boosting victory over co-hosts Canada, where they were clinical when they were on top and rode out a late storm. “They’ve been the better side for, at least, large portions of all three games, so the blueprint is already in place for how they approach this tie. It looks like they have found a starting XI moving forward, with their three-goal tournament top scorer Johan Manzambi looking impossible to drop. Johan Manzambi has starred for Canada, scoring three times in their three group matches (Dean Mouhtaropoulos/Getty Images)“Algeria ended up being involved in the most dramatic match of the tournament so far when, after trying to play out a 2-2 draw with Austria for the final 30 minutes of their match, Mahrez scored to turn calm into chaos in a game that ended 3-3.“The biggest positive for Algeria was Mahrez scoring twice, the first World Cup goals of his career at age 35, becoming the oldest Algerian to net at the tournament. They will need him to provide inspiration again if they want to make it to the World Cup’s round 16 for only the second time.”The Athletic Soccer Experts: SWITZERLAND WINGuest subscriber Jeff: ALGERIA WINSix-year-old Wilfred: SWITZERLAND WINStanley the dog: SWITZERLAND WINAlgo: SWITZERLAND WIN
