Professional players of Texas hold ’em, the most popular variant of poker, go to great lengths to play a balanced, unexploitable strategy. They mix value bets and bluffs in every single hand. The bluffs are not usually to make money. They are there to stop other players adjusting profitably to the game. If another player over-folds to avoid losing to your value bets, only then do your bluffs go from break-even to hugely profitable. Against strong opponents, a balanced strategy is essential.
National strategy likewise should strive for balance, particularly from the perspective of a weaker country. Since it’s almost impossible for a mid-sized open economy to be self-sufficient, better make sure you don’t depend on just one key partner, especially if you have minimal leverage over them and reason to doubt their long-term goodwill. Britain and Europe’s national strategies are both hopelessly dependent on America, while cutting themselves off from any alternatives. The recent Democratic primary election results in New York, where the socialist candidates, endorsed by New York mayor Zohran Mamdani, swept the board against the mainstream, are just another sign of how ruinous this strategy might prove.
