For much of the past 18 months, the labor market has remained largely frozen.
Rampant uncertainty, a lasting hangover from pandemic-era overhiring, the rise of AI, and a cocktail of other economic concerns – persistently high inflation, elevated interest rates and a shrinking labor force – stifled businesses’ expansion plans and put hiring on ice.
But for the past few months, it’s been looking like a thaw is underway.
US employment growth has surpassed expectations, adding an average of 188,000 jobs per month since March.
It’s a stark turnaround from last year, when monthly gains averaged fewer than 10,000 jobs (or, roughly one-twentieth of what we’re seeing now); and it comes across all the more impressive considering the backdrop of a volatile war in the Middle East and a massive oil shock that heated up inflation.
