https://www.reuters.com/world/french-poll-shows-far-right-leader-bardella-winning-presidential-election-2025-11-25/
The political landscape for the 2027 French presidential election is starting to take shape as potential candidates emerge to replace President Emmanuel Macron, who is ineligible for a third term. Jordan Bardella of the far-right National Rally (RN) is currently leading in the polls, with former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe and far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon also in the running. The race is further complicated by the upcoming Paris Court of Appeal ruling on Marine Le Pen’s conviction, which could affect her eligibility and solidify Bardella’s position as the RN candidate. Meanwhile, the Republicans have endorsed Bruno Retailleau, and the United Left is preparing for its primary in October.
The prediction markets reflect a dynamic but uncertain environment. Marine Le Pen’s chances of winning the 2027 election are currently priced at 8% YES, suggesting limited confidence in her candidacy. Jordan Bardella, on the other hand, sees stronger support with a 26% YES rating, indicating that market participants view him as a more viable contender. Édouard Philippe holds an 18% YES rating, reflecting his status as a significant centrist candidate. These figures are subject to change as the political landscape evolves and new developments arise.
