Goldman Sachs built a probability engine to forecast the World Cup, and the shocks of the knockout round show how the model reprices as new results arrive.
Key Facts
—The forecaster. Goldman Sachs built a statistical model, led by its chief economist, to predict the 2026 World Cup.
—The first call. Its pre-tournament model gave Spain a 26% chance to win, ahead of France at 19% and Argentina at 14%.
—The engine. It rests on the Elo rating system and nearly 20,000 international matches played since 1978.
—The update. The model is refreshed as results land, and the exits of Germany and the Netherlands reshaped it.
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