The SEC is quietly laying the groundwork for what could become one of the most significant expansions of the ETF universe in years. TD Securities’ analysis suggests investors may be placing regulated bets on election outcomes, crypto assets, and single-stock strategies through exchange-traded products by 2027.
On June 11, 2026, TD Securities published an analysis spotlighting prediction market ETFs as a potentially transformative category of investment product. The core idea: shifting from traditional price-based assets to probability-driven strategies, where investors can gain exposure to the likelihood of real-world events rather than just stock tickers.
The filings and the freeze
In February 2026, three investment firms filed applications for up to 24 ETFs designed to track election-related outcomes through contracts regulated by the CFTC on platforms like Kalshi. The firms behind the push are Roundhill Investments, Bitwise (operating under the name “PredictionShares”), and GraniteShares.
In early May 2026, the SEC delayed the effectiveness of all of these applications. On May 20, 2026, SEC Chair Paul Atkins took the unusual step of soliciting public comments on the legitimacy and structure of these novel products.
