Why Markets Are Pricing a "Godzilla" Weather Risk in Brazil

Key Facts

—The trigger. US forecasters put the odds of a very strong El Niño at 63%, with Pacific warming of 2.0°C or more from November to January.

—The map. Itaú BBA has named Brazil a key market to watch, treating the weather as a live signal for the currency and interest rates.

—The base case. The bank still expects a record soy crop of about 182 million tonnes in 2026/27.

—The tipping point. A shortfall of just 6% would erase about 11 million tonnes and cut global stocks-to-use from 28% to 25%.