The Dutch Defense Ministry has warned that Russia could carry out a limited military operation against a NATO member state within a year after the end of the war in Ukraine, according to its latest annual defense strategy document. The assessment places Europe in what officials describe as a “gray zone” between war and peace and calls for accelerated defense modernization, particularly in unmanned systems such as drones.
The report is based on intelligence assessments suggesting that Moscow is preparing for a prolonged confrontation with European countries. “Dutch intelligence services believe that Russia is preparing for a long-term confrontation with Europe,” the document states. In a more severe scenario outlined by the ministry, a constrained conflict targeting NATO territory could become possible within 12 months of the war in Ukraine concluding. The findings were cited by AFP.
The warning comes ahead of a NATO summit scheduled for July 7-8 in Ankara, where the issue of Russia’s military intentions is expected to be a central topic of discussion. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has previously cautioned that Russia “could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years,” reinforcing growing concerns among Alliance members.
