A hawkish Fed and emerging markets are on a collision course as Washington holds firm while the developing world refinances a record $9 trillion in dollar debt.
Deep Analysis · Global
Key Facts
—The hold. On June 17, 2026, the Fed left rates at 3.5 to 3.75 percent by a unanimous 12-0 vote and cut its statement to about 130 words from 341.
—The signal. The median official now sees rates ending 2026 at 3.8 percent, up from 3.4 percent in March; 17 of 18 saw inflation risks tilted up.
—The chair. In his first meeting, Kevin Warsh stripped out hints of cuts; markets price a 77 percent chance of a hike by December, up from about 24 percent a month earlier.
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