Bernstein analysts warned Monday that Kalshi and Polymarket have become the most exposed names in prediction markets, sitting on valuable exchange tech with far less reach than the platforms now building around them.
Why Kalshi And Polymarket Are Suddenly Vulnerable The two companies built real regulatory infrastructure early and still command serious private valuations, Kalshi near $22 billion and Polymarket around $15 billion, numbers that dwarf DraftKings' (NASDAQ:DKNG) $12.5 billion market cap.
But Bernstein's point cuts the other way: valuation without distribution is exactly the profile of a takeover target.
Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) and Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) have tens of millions of existing users to route through their own exchanges.
Kalshi and Polymarket don't have that built-in customer base, which is precisely why Bernstein lists both as plausible buyers or plausible targets depending on who moves first.
