Kalshi targets $40B valuation, nearly triple rival Polymarket's $15B target, as prediction markets split in two — TFN

Kalshi is seeking fresh capital at a $40B valuation, nearly triple the $15B target its biggest rival Polymarket is reportedly chasing.

The gap signals a widening divide between regulated and crypto-based prediction markets, with institutional money betting heavily on the former.

Kalshi’s CEO confirmed on June 24 the company is weighing an IPO, though a public listing is unlikely before 2027.

Two prediction markets platforms are raising money at the same time. The gap between their valuations tells you which model investors believe will win.

Kalshi, the federally regulated event contracts exchange co-founded by MIT classmates Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, is seeking fresh capital at roughly $40B, nearly double its previous $22B valuation, according to a Financial Times report. Its biggest rival, blockchain-based Polymarket, is reportedly targeting a raise at $15B.