If Andy Burnham succeeds Keir Starmer, he will inherit a Labour Party that has lost something it spent decades assuming it owned: the trust of Britain’s Muslims.
He should understand that this trust will not be recovered with a photograph at a mosque, an iftar or Eid party, or platitudes. It was destroyed by actions, and it can only be rebuilt by actions.
The rupture is not a matter of opinion. It is measurable. In the 2024 general election, Labour’s share of the Muslim vote fell to just over 60 percent, from around 80 percent in 2019. In the 21 constituencies that are more than 30 percent Muslim, it collapsed by almost 30 points.
Five sitting Labour MPs were defeated by pro-Gaza independents. Other Labour MPs survived by a few hundred votes.
This was not a protest that has since faded. By this past April, polling put Labour’s support among Muslims at just 33 percent, with three in five willing to back an independent to keep Labour out. The Muslim vote does not bend back towards Labour; it keeps moving away, and the distance keeps growing.
