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June 29, 2026 - 06:02
5 minutes
(Bloomberg) — US equity-index futures rose after reports the US and Iran backed away from a fresh escalation of their conflict, easing concerns over the fragile ceasefire underpinning peace talks.Contracts for the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.6%, although that was still down from an earlier gain of as much as 1%. The gains came after Axios reported that the US and Iran agreed to halt strikes and meet this week in Qatar to resume talks over the Strait of Hormuz and other issues to end the war, citing an unidentified US official. European shares were also set for a modest gain at the open.MSCI’s Asia Pacific share benchmark was little changed as investors rotated away from heavily weighted tech hardware shares such as Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. Eight of the index’s 11 subgroups gained.Brent crude oil eased from its session high to trade about 0.6% higher at $72.40 a barrel. The Middle East conflict had intensified since Thursday, with Iran striking a container ship, a vessel carrying Qatari oil, and military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, prompting multiple US retaliatory strikes.Hopes for a lasting peace between the US and Iran and optimism over the tech trade have put global stocks on track for their best quarter since 2020. While a strong first half is typically a good sign for the rest of the year, investors are grappling with a series of risks, from the durability of the artificial intelligence trade to the threat of rising interest rates as well as accelerating government spending.“The stock market seems to believe that President Trump has no choice but to make concessions as the midterm elections approach,” said Shoji Hirakawa, chief global strategist at Tokai Tokyo Intelligence Lab. “Investors see the exchange of attacks between the US and Iran as temporary and do not believe the situation will escalate into another war.”MSCI’s All Country World Index fell 2.1% last week as Wall Street traders kept driving a rotation out of high-profile chipmakers and into a broader category of companies.Attention in Asia on Monday is on South Korea. Samsung Electronics and SK Group are set to announce major investment plans alongside the policy initiatives. The two groups’ investments may total over $1.3 trillion over the next 10 years, Korea Economic Daily reported.South Korea’s Kospi index, the world’s best-performing major stocks gauge this year, fell 1% ahead of the planned unveiling of a sweeping growth strategy.Even so, the gauge has surged about 97% this year as investors piled into the country’s technology stocks, viewed as the picks and shovels of the global AI buildout.Elsewhere, the dollar was little changed against its major peers, while gold dropped 0.5% to $4,065 an ounce. Treasuries were a touch weaker, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year rising one basis point to 4.38%.This week, traders will be focused on the annual central banker meeting at Sintra, Portugal with speakers including Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. A series of US jobs reports, including nonfarm payrolls, will also be in focus as expectations mount a resilient US economy and inflation pressures may spur the Fed to raise interest rates as early as September.While Warsh may walk back some of his hawkish rhetoric at Sintra and weigh the dollar, it’s likely “to grind higher in coming weeks because of the ‘US exceptionalism’ narrative,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategists including Joseph Capurso wrote in a note to clients.“A strong and strengthening labor market is a recipe for higher US interest rates and US dollar,” they said.There may be other concerns too. A sharp correction in the AI-driven rally, inflation and fiscal stress are among the most alarming threats to global prosperity at present, Bank for International Settlements warned in its annual report Sunday.In its annual report published on Sunday, the Basel-based institution cited those on a list of “pressure points” that currently “demand attention,” with underlying financial vulnerabilities lurking that could amplify any shock.“The global economy remains caught in the crosscurrents of progress and peril,” Basel officials said in the report. “Resilience is being increasingly tested and strained.”Some of the main moves in markets:StocksS&P 500 futures rose 0.6% as of 1:01 p.m. Tokyo time Nikkei 225 futures (OSE) fell 0.6% Japan’s Topix was little changed Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.4% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 2.1% The Shanghai Composite rose 0.2% Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.1% CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro was unchanged at $1.1384 The Japanese yen was little changed at 161.79 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.8014 per dollar CryptocurrenciesBitcoin rose 0.6% to $59,929.1 Ether rose 0.6% to $1,581.21 BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.38% Japan’s 10-year yield advanced 3.5 basis points to 2.645% Australia’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.74% CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.2% to $70.07 a barrel Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,065.49 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.–With assistance from Matthew Burgess, Momoka Yokoyama, Bing Hong Lok and Bernadette Toh.©2026 Bloomberg L.P.
