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June 29, 2026 - 03:56
5 minutes
(Bloomberg) — US equity-index futures rose after reports the US and Iran backed away from a fresh escalation of their conflict, easing concerns over the fragile ceasefire underpinning peace talks.Contracts for the S&P 500 Index rose 0.5%, and those for the Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.6%, although that was still down from an earlier gain of as much as 1%. The advance came after Axios reported that the US and Iran agreed to halt strikes and meet this week in Qatar to resume talks over the Strait of Hormuz and other issues to end the war, citing an unidentified US official.MSCI’s Asia Pacific share benchmark erased earlier losses to edge up 0.1%. Six of the index’s 11 industry groups advanced as investors rotated out of technology and into healthcare and consumer products.Brent crude oil retreated from its session high to trade 0.7% higher at $72.50 a barrel. The Middle East conflict had intensified since Thursday, with Iran striking a container ship, a vessel carrying Qatari oil, and military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, prompting multiple US retaliatory strikes.Hopes for a lasting peace between the US and Iran and optimism over the tech trade have put global stocks on track for their best quarter since 2020. While a strong first half is typically a good sign for the rest of the year, investors are grappling with a series of risks, from the durability of the artificial intelligence trade to the threat of rising interest rates as well as accelerating government spending.“The stock market seems to believe that President Trump has no choice but to make concessions as the midterm elections approach,” said Shoji Hirakawa, chief global strategist at Tokai Tokyo Intelligence Lab. “Investors see the exchange of attacks between the US and Iran as temporary and do not believe the situation will escalate into another war.”Attention in Asia on Monday will be on South Korea. Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Group are set to announce major investment plans alongside the policy initiatives. The two groups’ investments may total over $1.3 trillion over the next 10 years, Korea Economic Daily reported.South Korea’s Kospi index, the world’s best-performing major stocks gauge this year, fell almost 1% ahead of the planned unveiling of a sweeping growth strategy.Elsewhere, the dollar was little changed against its major peers, while gold dropped 0.7% to $4,060 an ounce. Treasuries were a touch weaker, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year rising two basis points to 4.38%.This week, traders will be focused on the annual central banker meeting at Sintra, Portugal with speakers including Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. A series of US jobs reports, including nonfarm payrolls, will also be in focus as expectations mount a resilient US economy and inflation pressures may spur the Fed to raise interest rates as early as September.While Warsh may walk back some of his hawkish rhetoric at Sintra and weigh the dollar, it’s likely “to grind higher in coming weeks because of the ‘US exceptionalism’ narrative,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategists including Joseph Capurso wrote in a note to clients.“A strong and strengthening labor market is a recipe for higher US interest rates and US dollar,” they said.There may be other concerns too. A sharp correction in the AI-driven rally, inflation and fiscal stress are among the most alarming threats to global prosperity at present, Bank for International Settlements warned in its annual report Sunday.In its annual report published on Sunday, the Basel-based institution cited those on a list of “pressure points” that currently “demand attention,” with underlying financial vulnerabilities lurking that could amplify any shock.“The global economy remains caught in the crosscurrents of progress and peril,” Basel officials said in the report. “Resilience is being increasingly tested and strained.”Some of the main moves in markets:StocksS&P 500 futures rose 0.5% as of 10:53 a.m. Tokyo time Japan’s Topix fell 0.2% Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.1% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.7% The Shanghai Composite fell 0.2% Euro Stoxx 50 futures were little changed CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro was little changed at $1.1387 The Japanese yen was little changed at 161.78 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.8066 per dollar CryptocurrenciesBitcoin fell 0.3% to $59,403.94 Ether fell 0.1% to $1,568.77 BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.38% Japan’s 10-year yield advanced 3.5 basis points to 2.645% Australia’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.74% CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.1% to $69.97 a barrel Spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,060.90 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.–With assistance from Matthew Burgess, Momoka Yokoyama, Bing Hong Lok and Bernadette Toh.©2026 Bloomberg L.P.
