Bank of America just slapped a $720 price target on Applied Materials (AMAT), up from $540, while keeping its Buy rating intact. The semiconductor equipment giant closed at $585.88 on the day of the upgrade, meaning BofA sees roughly 23% upside from current levels.

Here’s the thing: the stock actually dropped about 8% on the same day the price target went up.

The $2.7 trillion bet

The bank expanded its projected total addressable market for semiconductors to $2.7 trillion by 2030. That’s up from a prior estimate of $2.3 trillion, a $400 billion revision that signals serious confidence in where the industry is headed.

Two forces are driving that expanded forecast: memory chips and data center buildouts. Both are essential infrastructure for AI technologies.