Last week at San Diego, the unthinkable happened: Shane van Gisbergen didn’t win after being caught up in an accident, and he was plenty mad. However, it left the field wide open, and Corey Heim, in only his 13th Cup Series start, got an unlikely win at the first run on a challenging street course at Naval Base Coronado. This week at Sonoma, SVG is still firmly atop the odds boards and has extra motivation.As for the points race, Denny Hamlin held his own last week and secured a top-15 finish; Tyler Reddick’s lead is now down to 8 points. Reddick is expected to best Hamlin at Sonoma, but the latter keeps hanging on. The 2026 In-Season Challenge also begins — a 32-driver bracket tournament where the driver who finishes higher in a head-to-head battle advances.As always, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi answer our most pressing questions and make predictions about the upcoming race.The Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway is Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET on TNT, PRN and HBO Max.Race winner odds for the Toyota/ Save Mart 350In your San Diego takeaways article, you reported Shane van Gisbergen said, “I’m filthy” when asked whether he was upset about his involvement in a collision (for which Austin Hill took the blame) that took him out of the race. How motivated do you think he’ll be this week?Jeff: First of all, I had no idea that in Kiwi and Aussie slang, “filthy” meant “incredibly pissed.” Obviously, I was enlightened when SVG used it, so I appreciate the education. Anyway, he’ll be motivated as always to win on a road course and should once again be the massive favorite, but San Diego showed us why just because you’re the fastest driver or have the fastest car doesn’t always mean you’ll win. SVG can typically outrun bad luck, but not always.Jordan: There is no lack of motivation for SVG, who badly needs to rebound in a big way if he’s going to have any chance of salvaging his hopes of making the Chase. He needs a monster points haul on Sunday because anything less than that and he’s unlikely to qualify, as he’s just not (yet) consistently strong enough to finish well on ovals. So, with this being the last road-course race of the season, Sonoma is the last opportunity SVG will have to earn maximum points.The 2026 In-Season Challenge begins this weekend. How does its commencement on a difficult road course change how a driver approaches the race and the risk-reward ratio?Jeff: Drivers are aware of who they’re matched up against, but I wouldn’t expect any fireworks on the track unless it’s the final lap or two. I could see someone in a battle for 18th place deciding to ship their In-Season Challenge competitor to advance to Round 2. Other than that, drivers have to run their race and let the rest take care of itself.