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The few opinion polls that I have seen over the last year show President William Ruto struggling to get above 30 per cent of the vote share. His approval rating is also decidedly below water.
In the same polls more than two-thirds of Kenyans, with majorities in all major political zones (including Ruto’s presumed back yard), saying the country is headed in the wrong direction. With these figures, you would expect Ruto’s political fate was sealed.
However, that is not the case. The President can still coast to re-election next year. His biggest advantage is he is the incumbent. This has been demonstrated in recent by-elections in which the state has allegedly spared no resources to get the President’s preferred candidate over the line. We should expect the same in next year’s election.
The other big advantage is the disorganisation among the opposition. We seem to be sleepwalking towards a rerun of either the 1992 or 1997 elections. In both elections, the combined votes of the opposition would have easily trounced the incumbent. However, the leading opposition figures refused to reign in their egos.
