https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7163597/2026/04/01/iraq-qualify-world-cup/?eafs_enabled=false
During the FIFA World Cup 2026 Group I match, Iraq’s Rebin Sulaka received a red card in the 13th minute, leaving his team with ten players against Senegal. The match, held at Toronto Stadium, saw Senegal leading 1-0 against Iraq, who are making their first World Cup appearance since 1986. This early setback for Iraq, under coach Graham Arnold, increases the pressure in a crucial match for both teams aiming to progress past the group stage.
The market reaction to Sulaka’s red card and Senegal’s lead has been significant. In the sub-market predicting Senegal to win by more than 1.5 goals, current odds now stand at 84% YES, up from 57% just 24 hours ago. This suggests a strong market view that Senegal will capitalize on Iraq’s reduced defensive capacity and extend their lead further.
The rapid shift in odds reflects the perceived disadvantage Iraq faces, playing with one less player against a team like Senegal. Market participants appear to interpret these developments as supportive of a scenario where Senegal could secure a larger margin of victory, given Iraq’s compromised position.
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