You’ve probably seen it by now. A chart, passed around on social media with the kind of grim satisfaction that only statistics can produce: more Europeans die each year from summer heat than Americans die from gun violence. The implication cuts both ways—Europe’s lack of air conditioning is deadlier than America’s lack of gun control—and it has been lighting up feeds across the political spectrum ever since.
Turns out, it’s mostly true. And this summer is making it impossible to ignore.
This semi-true graph is picking up steam online.Hannah Ritchie’s By the Numbers Substack
Europe is currently in the grip of its second major heat emergency in two months. The UK Met Office and the World Meteorological Organization have put an 86% probability on at least one year between now and 2030 breaking 2024’s record as the hottest ever measured—with 2027 the most likely candidate as a developing El Niño peaks. In the meantime, 2026 is already tracking as one of the four warmest years on record, the fourth consecutive year to exceed 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels.
It’ll be a hot summer for sure
