The next major front line in Sudan's war is most likely the strategically important city of el-Obeid in North Kordofan. This week, the UN Security Council, several European countries and the United States flagged "the imminent risk of mass atrocities" as increasing numbers of paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) troops are deployed around the city.
The assumption is largely that the RSF is preparing a ground offensive to try to retake the city, which has been under the control of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) since February 2025.
The war in Sudan has been ongoing since a rift between the two rival generals — Abdel-Fattah Burhan of the Sudanese Armed Forces and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo of the Rapid Support Forces — escalated in April 2023. Since then, fighting has divided the country into army-held territories in the north and center, including Sudan's capital, Khartoum, and RSF-controlled areas in Sudan's western Darfur region and parts of the south.
Sudan, rich in oil and gold and with its vast agricultural lands, has also turned into the world's largest humanitarian and displacement crisis over the course of the war. According to the UN, more than 14 million people have been displaced within Sudan and neighboring countries. The estimated death toll ranges between 40,000 and 250,000 people as reliable figures remain difficult to obtain due to ongoing fighting.
