Australia is through to the knockout stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The Socceroos secured a draw against Paraguay in their final Group D match, earning enough points to finish second in the group and book a place in the Round of 32.
Before the match kicked off, Opta’s models put Australia’s chances of advancing at somewhere between 91% and 94%.
How Australia got here
The 2026 World Cup operates under a new format that significantly changes the math of group-stage survival. With 48 teams spread across 12 groups, the top two finishers in each group advance automatically, and the best 16 third-placed teams also move on.
Australia’s draw with Paraguay was enough to secure second place in Group D on goal difference. Finishing second means the Socceroos advance directly rather than waiting to see whether a third-place finish would have been good enough among the broader pool of third-placed teams across all 12 groups.
