Gold found its footing near $4,000 an ounce on June 25 after US inflation data came in exactly where markets expected, slightly reducing the probability of a near-term rate hike from the Federal Reserve.
The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, landed in line with forecasts. The immediate effect: odds of a September rate hike slipped from 68% to 63%.
A long fall from the peak
Gold hit approximately $5,589 back in January 2026. It has since lost roughly 25-28% of that value. The metal dipped as low as the $3,981-$3,999 range before steadying near $4,000. The previous month alone saw a roughly 10% decline.
A US dollar at its highest level in about a year has made gold more expensive for international buyers. Hawkish signals from the Fed following recent FOMC meetings reinforced the idea that rate cuts aren’t coming anytime soon, and rate hikes might actually be on the table. Inflation concerns tied to geopolitical factors have kept the central bank in a cautious posture.
