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Jun 25, 2026
Sergei Guriev
With Ukraine reclaiming territory, mounting drone strikes deep in Russian territory, and draining Russia’s coffers, Vladimir Putin would do well to seek a negotiated freeze to the conflict. But there is no guarantee that he will, not least because he might not grasp the situation Russia is in.
LONDON—Russian President Vladimir Putin has had a tough few months. While the Ukraine war never unfolded according to plan, Putin believed, until recently, that time was on his side. Russia managed to increase its share of occupied Ukrainian territory in 2025—albeit only slightly, from 18.5% to 19.3%. More important, US President Donald Trump appeared eager to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky into a “peace agreement” that handed even more Ukrainian territory to Russia.
