More than $10.6 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire on June 26, making it the single largest expiry event currently on the calendar. With Bitcoin trading between $61K and $65K after shedding roughly 12% over the past month, the overwhelming majority of those positions are staring at losses.
Here’s the thing: about 80% of the open interest, roughly $8.6 billion worth, is currently out-of-the-money. That means four out of every five contracts are on track to expire worthless unless something dramatic happens in the next few weeks.
The numbers paint a painful picture
The max pain price for this expiry sits at $74K, about 14% above where Bitcoin is currently trading. Max pain is the price level at which the largest number of options contracts expire worthless, theoretically inflicting the most financial pain on holders.
The put-to-call ratio stands at 0.87, which is relatively balanced. A ratio below 1.0 means there are slightly more calls (bullish bets) than puts (bearish bets).
