National health spending is projected to reach nearly $9 trillion by 2034.At the same time, the percentage of Americans covered by health insurance is expected to drop, due in part to expiring subsidies for some Affordable Care Act marketplace plan enrollees.Medicare spending for physicians and other clinical care is also expected to decline because of a rule limiting reimbursement for skin substitutes.
Health expenditures are expected to reach $8.97 trillion by 2034, while the percentage of the population with health insurance is expected to decline for the next several years, said researchers at the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS).
"The main [cost] drivers are high utilization growth across those services, and notably rapid growth in retail prescription drug spending," Jacqueline Fiore, PhD, an economist in the national health statistics group at the CMS Office of the Actuary, said during a reporter briefing. "Significant legislative provisions from the Inflation Reduction Act and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act are anticipated to affect health spending and insurance coverage trends through 2028. Together, these legislative provisions play a role in reducing the insured population through 2028. And finally, the federal government's share of health costs is projected to increase through 2034, mainly from Medicare."
