Kevin Warsh’s inaugural FOMC meeting as Federal Reserve Chair did exactly what markets feared it would. Gold, silver, and Bitcoin all slid as the dollar surged on fresh expectations that interest rates could actually go up before the year is out.
The June 17 meeting kept the federal funds rate parked at 3.50% to 3.75%, which was widely expected. What wasn’t priced in was the dramatic shift in the Fed’s own projections: nine out of nineteen officials now forecast at least one rate hike by the end of 2026, pushing the median year-end rate outlook from 3.4% to 3.8%.
Bitcoin takes the hit
Bitcoin had been trading around $66K heading into the meeting. By the time Warsh’s hawkish messaging settled in, it had retreated to a range between $64,800 and $65,300. A roughly $1,200 drop doesn’t sound catastrophic on its own, but the speed and catalyst matter more than the magnitude here.
The move underscored something crypto traders already know but occasionally forget: Bitcoin remains deeply sensitive to Federal Reserve policy signals. When the dollar strengthens on expectations of tighter monetary policy, non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold tend to suffer. They produce no interest, no dividends, no yield. In a world where cash earns more, the opportunity cost of holding them rises.
