Mark Zuckerberg at the UFC Freedom 250 event.
Alex Brandon/AP Photo
Mark Zuckerberg has spotted a trend — once again, after others got there first. When videos exploded on TikTok, the Meta chief built Reels. When users began fleeing Twitter, he launched Threads. When dating apps flourished, he introduced Facebook Dating. And now, as online betting booms, the 42-year-old is entering the business — a few years late.Internally, the project is called "Arena," and it is set to become an app competing with platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi — platforms where users can bet in real time on who will win the next election, whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, or whether Donald Trump will mention McDonald's in a speech next week.News of the "Arena" plans, first reported by The New York Times, spread within minutes on Tuesday. The market quickly grasped what Meta's potential entry would mean: When a company with more than 3 billion members on Facebook and Instagram begins nudging its users toward betting, there is much to lose — and even more to gain."Meta shows that we are still in the early days of the prediction market experiment," historian and author Jonathan D. Cohen said.Cohen, who researches online gambling, predicts the current dominance of market leader Kalshi is likely to end soon. "We might not even understand yet the degree to which the market will change — how many new platforms we are going to have, and how much further gambling is going to seep into every corner of American life."A Supreme Court ruling that changed everythingUntil 2018, online betting was effectively prohibited in the United States. Then the Supreme Court overturned the ban, and what followed was a gambling expansion onto millions of phones at a scale almost reminiscent of the Gold Rush era.Today, America bets. And it does so massively. According to the American Gaming Association, Americans wagered approximately $150 billion on sporting events alone last year — predominantly on smartphones or laptops. That represents an increase of 11% compared to 2024. Thirty-nine states have now legalized online sports betting. A survey by the Siena College Research Institute found nearly 22% of US adults report having at least one active account with a betting provider. Nearly half of men aged 18 to 49 have an account.
