Mumbai: Economists remain divided on the impact a potentially deficient monsoon could have on food inflation. A section of experts argues that any upward pressure on food prices would likely be offset by the recent decline in crude oil prices, which has improved the overall inflation outlook. Others caution that El Nino conditions could intensify during July and August, disrupting sowing activity and putting upward pressure on food prices in the months ahead.From a monetary policy perspective, however, most economists do not expect the Reserve Bank of India to react immediately. Any discussion of a rate hike is likely to be deferred until after October, when policymakers have greater clarity on the monsoon's effect on agricultural output, food prices and the broader inflation trajectory, they feel.Also Read: India prepares contingency plans for 315 districts as monsoon falters"On a year-on-year basis, food inflation continues to inch up in June," Gaura Sen Gupta, chief economist at IDFC First Bank, told ET. Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation for June is tracking at 4.4% year-on-year against 3.9% in May "due to a rise in fuel inflation and a pickup in food inflation," she said. However, Gupta said, easing crude oil prices will likely balance out the risks from food inflation. Brent crude oil prices were trading at $75 per barrel on Wednesday, according to Reuters, after reaching a peak of $115 per barrel in mid-May.RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra in a media interview on Wednesday said the inflation outlook remains subject to uncertainties from both crude oil prices and monsoon, adding that it would be difficult to single out one risk over the other at this stage.Also Read: Sanjay Malhotra calms rate hike fears as RBI watches oil, monsoon"The monsoon has been weak till now. We will wait and watch how the monsoon spreads and what impact it has on food prices... But from a food point of view, we have sufficient buffers to meet demand in case we are in a deficit rainfall. From a growth point of view, we will have to wait and watch," Malhotra said.India has recorded a rainfall deficit of roughly 42% as of June 23, 2026, while rainfall in June 2025 was at a healthy 109% of long-period average. However, despite the weak start, area under sowing shows a moderate pickup compared to last year, tracking higher by 1.7% YoY as of June 19, according to IDFC First Bank data.Reservoir LevelsThe level in Mumbai's seven water supplying lakes remained at critically low levels at just 7.94% capacity on Wednesday, according to data from BMC, even as the southwest monsoon finally covered the city after two weeks' delay. "Reservoir levels are down, and the intensity of rains has to increase for the levels to increase," Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda told ET. "To me, the major threat to the growth-inflation dynamic is due to pick up in food inflation. The headline inflation number will remain above 5% and can go up to 6% if the monsoon is bad in July-August," he said.