Morgan Stanley just doubled its 2026 forecast for humanoid robot shipments in China, bumping the number from 28,000 units to 50,000. That’s not a minor tweak to a spreadsheet. It’s the kind of revision that signals an entire industry is moving faster than even Wall Street’s most optimistic models predicted.
The bank now sees Chinese humanoid robot shipments reaching 446,000 units annually by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 106% from 2025 levels. The projected market size at that point: $15 billion.
The numbers behind the doubling
To appreciate the pace here, consider the baseline. China shipped an estimated 12,000 humanoid robots in 2025. Morgan Stanley’s updated forecast of 50,000 units for 2026 implies year-over-year growth of roughly 133%.
Parts prices have been falling, with Morgan Stanley noting a 16% reduction in previous analyses. Cheaper components mean cheaper robots, which means faster adoption.
