The DOJ and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are investigating four major oil trades worth over $2.6 billion that appear to have profited from bets placed just before price drops tied to the escalating US-Iran conflict.

The trades under the microscope

Four separate trades, all on the right side of oil price drops, executed with suspicious timing. The first trade, worth $500 million, landed on March 23. A nearly $1 billion position followed on April 7. Then came $760 million on April 17 and $430 million on April 21. Every single one correctly predicted a downturn in oil prices, with the combined haul exceeding $2.6 billion.

These trades occurred against a backdrop of US crude prices surging above $100 per barrel. Geopolitical tensions, particularly threats to the Strait of Hormuz, had been pushing energy markets into overdrive. The timing of these positions, placed before critical announcements from both Trump and Iranian officials, is what triggered the federal investigation.

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