Larry Kudlow is not being subtle about his economic outlook. The Fox Business host and former Trump National Economic Council director is calling the current US economy “absolutely booming,” pointing to a cluster of data points that, if they hold, would make this one of the strongest growth periods in recent memory.
The centerpiece of his argument: the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which is projecting real GDP growth of 4.3% for the second quarter of 2026. That’s not a government forecast or a Wall Street consensus estimate. It’s a real-time tracking model that updates as new economic data rolls in.
The numbers behind the optimism
Corporate profits have climbed 15% or better, according to his commentary. Manufacturing production is up 4%. And the standout: high-tech manufacturing has surged 23%, a number that reflects the reshoring boom and massive capital investment pouring into semiconductor and AI-related production facilities.
On the inflation side, Kudlow highlighted that core goods inflation sits at just 1.1% when you strip out food and energy. That’s a notable data point because it suggests the economy can grow at a fast clip without the kind of price pressure that would force the Federal Reserve to slam the brakes.
