Cboe launches Cboe Predicts, its first products in a new prediction markets suite

Cboe Global Markets, one of the largest options exchanges on the planet, is officially entering the prediction markets arena. The company has unveiled Cboe Predicts, a new suite of event contracts built around the S&P 500 that ditches the simple yes/no format most traders associate with prediction markets.

Instead of the binary structure popularized by platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, Cboe is rolling out a proprietary three-outcome payout model.

How the three-outcome model works

The Cboe Predicts framework offers three possible results. A full $100 payout if the trader nails the outcome. A partial payout within what Cboe calls a “Plus Zone” for traders who get the direction right but miss the exact target. Or a $0 payout for getting it wrong entirely. The contracts are based on daily S&P 500 closing levels, using Mini-SPX (XSP) contracts as the underlying instrument.

The Schwab connection and retail push