The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey for June painted a grim picture of service-sector confidence in the mid-Atlantic region. The general activity diffusion index fell to -25.8, its lowest reading since May 2025.
For context, any reading below zero signals contraction. A reading below negative 25 means a substantial majority of surveyed firms believe conditions are getting worse, not better.
A tale of two readings
The headline number tells one story, but the survey’s firm-level activity index tells a very different one. That gauge actually improved to +2.4, up from -3.8 in May. It’s the first positive firm-level reading since February.
The disconnect is worth paying attention to. Individual businesses are saying their own operations look okay. But when those same firms are asked about the broader regional economy, they’re deeply pessimistic.
