Prediction markets show limited optimism that a ban on congressional stock trading will pass this year, even as public scrutiny intensifies and lawmakers increase their trading activity.
Not Much Action Expected This Year?
A Kalshi bet gives just 6.7% odds that members of Congress will be banned from trading individual stocks before 2027.
Note that a congressional stock trading ban may still qualify for a "Yes" if lawmakers are permitted to use blind trusts or invest in diversified assets like exchange-traded funds or mutual funds.
The restriction only applies to individual stock trading.
