Goldman Sachs has trimmed its forecast for China’s second-quarter 2026 real GDP growth to 4.5% year-over-year, down from its earlier projection of 4.7%. The culprit: softer-than-anticipated economic data from April and May, combined with persistently sluggish domestic demand.
What the numbers actually say
Beyond the headline year-over-year figure, the sequential picture looks even more telling. Goldman now expects China’s Q2 GDP to come in at roughly 3.5% on a quarter-over-quarter annualized basis, down from a previous estimate of 4.0%.
Goldman’s full-year 2026 GDP growth estimate for China remains unchanged at 4.8%. That number actually sits above the Bloomberg consensus range of 4.5% to 4.6%, suggesting Goldman still sees reasons to be more optimistic than the broader analyst community about the back half of the year.
The two-speed economy problem
