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India, once the world’s second-largest sugar exporter, is expected to have little surplus for export for at least three more seasons as El Niño weather conditions threaten cane production and rising ethanol demand squeezes supply.
The twin pressures are poised to keep millions of tonnes of sugar off the world market, tightening supplies for importers across Asia, Africa and the Middle East and supporting benchmark prices in London and New York.
A prolonged absence by India from export markets would remove a key balancing supplier as weather risks and biofuel policies reshape global sugar trade flows.
Interviews with over a dozen trade and industry executives, government sources and farmers show that lower cane availability and rising ethanol demand will leave little for exports for several years, prompting dealers at global houses to warn head offices of shrinking opportunities in India, trade sources said.
