Between 2019 and 2025, positions at high risk of AI substitution declined in the US, while roles at low risk of replacement grew.
What the ECB actually found
The European Central Bank’s research, spanning analyses published in 2025 and into early 2026, finds that firms utilizing AI significantly are approximately 4% more likely to expand their workforce, not shrink it.
On the productivity side, AI adoption has been observed to increase labor productivity by an average of 4% across the EU. That boost is particularly pronounced in sectors heavily invested in research and development.
The ECB’s data comes partly from the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises, known as SAFE, which collects firm-level information on how businesses incorporate AI into their operations. The survey results indicate that AI use has been broadly neutral for employment in the euro area so far. High-intensity AI use actually displays a positive impact on employment, especially within R&D-heavy sectors.
