China just reminded the world who controls the on-off switch for critical minerals. On June 22, 2026, Beijing prohibited exports of dual-use items to three US firms: MP Materials, USA Rare Earth, and Aveox, escalating a trade conflict that threatens to redraw the map of global supply chains.
The move came with a familiar warning from Chinese officials: keep pushing protectionist policies, and the world’s supply chains will fracture. It’s a threat that carries weight when you control approximately 60% of the global mined rare earth supply and more than 90% of refining capacity.
The rare earth chokepoint
Rare earths are the unglamorous backbone of modern technology. These 17 metallic elements show up in everything from smartphones and electric vehicle motors to missile guidance systems and wind turbines.
The latest restrictions follow the expiration of a temporary suspension on Chinese export curbs that had been part of a 2025 trade agreement. That suspension was set to lapse in November 2026, but Beijing apparently decided not to wait.
