Spain’s 4-0 thrashing of Saudi Arabia on June 21 didn’t just rearrange Group H. It reshuffled the probability deck for teams across the entire World Cup, including Scotland, which isn’t even in Spain’s group.
What happened, and why Scotland cares
Spain came into the Saudi Arabia match needing a statement. Their opening fixture against Cape Verde ended 0-0, a result that had prediction models quietly raising eyebrows about whether this tournament’s pre-event favorites were as sharp as advertised.
Those concerns evaporated in Atlanta. Lamine Yamal found the net as Spain put four past Saudi Arabia without reply, restoring their status as Group H favorites alongside Uruguay.
Pre-match models had given Spain roughly an 87% probability of beating Saudi Arabia. The margin of victory, four goals rather than the expected one or two, pushed Spain’s advancement probabilities and projected knockout-round seedings higher than most simulations had anticipated.
