The agreement between Tehran and Washington on peace in Iran supports the chances of confirming the milder scenario for the Greek economy, with growth of 2% in 2026, and 2.1% in 2027 and 2028, according to the Bank of Greece latest estimate.
The central bank’s baseline scenario speaks of growth of 1.9% in 2026 and 2027, and 2% in 2028.
In the milder scenario, inflation is projected at 3.7% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.2% in 2028. It is clear that the end of the war in the Middle East will not lead to a significant de-escalation of prices.
The Bank of Greece recently revised its estimates for inflation, predicting that it will reach 3.7% this year (against previous estimates of 3.1%) and will moderate thereafter, to 2.6% in 2027 and 2.3% in 2028, provided that the war in the Middle East ends and energy and food prices fall.
The BoG emphasizes in its latest economic bulletin that the risks to the growth forecasts are mainly on the downside and are basically related to a possible failure to implement the US-Iran deal that will continue the war in the Middle East.
