What are the prospects that the Israeli-Hezbollah ceasefire will hold and for how long? For insight, Amna Nawaz spoke with Rob Malley. He was the U.S. Special Envoy for Iran during the Biden administration and was part of the team that negotiated the nuclear agreement with Iran during the Obama administration. Notice: Transcripts are machine and human generated and lightly edited for accuracy. They may contain errors.
Amna Nawaz:
So what are the prospects that the Israel-Hezbollah cease-fire will hold, and for how long?For insights, we turn now to Rob Malley. He was the U.S. special envoy for Iran during the Biden administration and was also part of the team that negotiated the 2015 Iran nuclear deal during the Obama administration. He's now a senior fellow at Yale and president emeritus of the International Crisis Group, where he directs their Middle East Program. He joins us tonight from Abu Dhabi.Rob, welcome back to the "News Hour."Let's start with that first question here. In your view, how real is the possibility that the fighting in Lebanon, Israel and Hezbollah, neither backing off, how real is the possibility it could derail the entire process moving forward?Robert Malley, Former U.S. Special Envoy to Iran: Well, this is a deal that is brimming with ambiguity, with discrepant interpretations, room for discord, nowhere and nowhere more violently than when it comes to Lebanon.And that's because, in that case, Israel's position is, we should have a free hand to take the action that we believe is necessary for our self-defense, for our security, and we're certainly not going to withdraw from Southern Lebanon. Iran takes the view that the deal provides for a comprehensive cease-fire, which they interpret as meaning respect for Lebanese sovereignty and therefore an end to the occupation.And the U.S. doesn't really seem to know what it wants, other than to scramble repeatedly to salvage the deal. So it probably is the most delicate piece of the deal at this point. And the question is going to be, does the U.S. put enough pressure on Netanyahu? Is Netanyahu prepared to alienate his political base, which is not happy about an imposed cease-fire?And is Iran prepared to turn a blind eye to some violations of the cease-fire so long as they don't cross a threshold? And that's a delicate balancing act we have seen play out today. And I suspect we're going to see it playing out over the days to come.
