The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) kept its key policy rate unchanged at 15%, while warning it stands ready to raise rates if inflationary pressures intensify. The decision came against the backdrop of slowing headline inflation – which eased to 8.2% year-on-year (yoy) in May – partly driven by seasonal factors and increased raw food supply. Core inflation, however, ticked up slightly to 7.9% yoy, and both indicators came in above the NBU’s April forecast, largely due to second-round effects from rapid energy price growth in earlier months.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. “Given signs of increasing underlying price pressures, the NBU is ready to raise its key policy rate if necessary to keep inflation expectations in check,” NBU governor Andriy Pyshny said at the briefing on Thursday. The NBU expects inflation to remain near current levels in the coming months, then accelerate toward year-end before returning to a declining trajectory in 2027. Sustained pressure is expected from higher business costs, a weaker hryvnia, and wage growth driven by ongoing labor shortages, the NBU wrote in its press release. The Hryvnia weakening question The hryvnia weakened from 44.2 to 44.8 per dollar between June 1 and June 18, according to NBU data, with the sharpest slide – from 44.3 to 44.8 – occurring over the final ten days. ICU analysts described the moves as “unexpected” in their latest newsletter. Two other market analysts, who asked Kyiv Post to remain unnamed, also said they did not expect the same degree of weakening.