Crisil expects India’s domestic solar cell supply to rise to about half of demand by fiscal 2026–27, driven by localization policies and capacity expansion, but warns that rapid buildout could pressure utilization and returns.
Indian credit ratings, research and risk analytics company Crisil expects domestically manufactured solar cells to account for half of India’s total demand in fiscal year 2026–27, which runs from 1 April 2026 to 31 March 2027, up from about one-fourth in the previous fiscal year.
The outlook is based on capacity expansion plans announced by domestic solar module and cell manufacturers, supported by policy measures aimed at reducing reliance on imports and accelerating local manufacturing.
The increase in domestic share is expected to be driven by the government’s push for localization, alongside a sharp ramp-up in solar cell manufacturing capacity. However, rapid capacity additions could pressure utilization rates and realizations, potentially extending payback periods for manufacturers.
The projections factor in India’s policy framework, including the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) introduced by the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), which was later extended upstream through the Approved List of Cell Manufacturers (ALCM) to reduce dependence on imported solar cells.
